All About Dubai Tourism

Oh, Dubai. Sometimes we wish you success, because you’re so funny. Other times we can’t wait till you run out of oil and just turn back into a desert wasteland, because you’re so gross.

Of late, the Gulf city-state has been trending somewhere between those two courses. They’ve shut down all kinds of massive half-baked construction projects, but are pushing ahead on a select few. Most notable in the “pushing ahead” category are the world’s tallest building and the city’s new metro system (exempted on the “half-baked” count). The powers that be in Dubai have been planning a grand simultaneous unveiling of the two in September, in fact — seeing it as a perfect opportunity to get massive amounts of media attention and declare to the world, “We’re still acting’ all rich!”

Sadly, there’s a hitch. Construction on the Burj Khalifa, the 206-story luxury residential and office tower–space will supposedly go for $3,500/square foot and up–is running behind schedule, and will not be complete by September. So the metro–which features a “Gold class” section for “VIPs”–will debut alone and therefore won’t get anywhere close to as much media attention.

It turns out that Dubai tees are pretty upset about it. Nearly half “believe the delay to the Burj Khalifa is a missed opportunity to put Dubai back on the global map.” An additional 17 percent are sad because Dubai now looks like the kind of slacker place that can’t keep to a schedule when building white elephant projects.

To celebrate the synergy that might have been though, here are some fact boxes and photos of the $4 billion, 2,600-foot aluminum stalagmite and the $4 billion, 22-mile first phase of the new metro system.

According to London-based property adviser Mohammed Kashani-Akhavan, the current cancellation of development projects is likely to reduce supply, thus resulting in existing properties increasing in value in the future.

Dubai-based Meraas Development, which has unveiled a $95bn (£63.8bn) property project since being formed just two months ago, is the latest construction firm to announce that it is now reconsidering its plans in light of the economic slump.

Kashani-Akhavan, who has 27 years experience in property investment said, “It is a great time to invest,” he remarked, adding that in order to become a successful property investor the best tactic is to “buy low when everybody else is selling”.

He also stated that the emirate’s “capable and committed leadership” is well-positioned to ensure a successful future for Dubai, noting that it has already helped turn the city into one of the “most important in the world”. “That should give investors every confidence in Dubai’s future prosperity”, He added.

Peter Cooper, author of the book Opportunity Dubai, making a fortune in the Middle East, said there is a much better argument to be made for buying at depressed prices In Dubai than in the UK or even the US.

Real estate price falls may already be fully priced into the market in the United Arab Emirates, while prices are still heading down in the UK. It is a feature of emerging markets that price downturns are swift,’ he explained.

This is a tough one. Oil prices could fall further in 2009 and the UAE economy lags oil price falls by six months or so. Could a fall in the US dollar attract back the UK and European buyers who have fled since the summer?’ said Cooper.

The tragedy of the black hole in Dubai’s finances is that it has dealt a blow not only to its own reputation but to that of the United Arab Emirates — and beyond that to the Arab Gulf as a whole. One might even go so far as to say that it has dealt a painful blow to the entire Arab world.

Until the crisis broke — with the announcement last Wednesday that Dubai was seeking a six-month moratorium on the debt of Dubai World, its government-owned holding company — the Arab Gulf was widely recognized as the real success story of the Arab world.

It had become a pole of modernity, of high-finance, of high-tech enterprise, of education and culture, of spectacular universities and museums. The Arab Gulf had become a magnet for tens of thousands of clever, well-educated men and women from other Arab countries, and for hundreds of thousands of Western expatriates attracted by the tax-free salaries and relaxed life-style. In Dubai alone, there are said to be no fewer than 120,000 Britons.

There is no doubt that Dubai is in a financial mess. Its many government enterprises will need restructuring, a process which has already begun. The emir, Sheikh Muhammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum, is evidently taking things more firmly into his own hands. Three key men, closely associated with the city-state’s spectacular growth, have been relieved of their powerful jobs. They are Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, chairman of Dubai World, Mohammad Ali Alabbar, chairman of Emaar, the property giant, and Mohammed al-Gergawi, chairman of Dubai Holding.

The Emirate evidently expanded too fast and ran up heavy debts by embarking on vanity projects of doubtful financial viability, such as the 810 meter-high Burj Dubai skyscraper — the highest in the world — and the artificial islands built in the shallow waters along its coast, to provide room for miles of luxury villas. These, in particular, could be vulnerable to a rise in sea-levels due to global warming. In view of the hot and humid climate in the Gulf, Dubai’s emphasis on high-class tourism may prove to be a mistake.

One should not, however, be overly pessimistic. In my view at least, the world has been far too quick to suggest that the glossy city-state is about to go bankrupt. This is far too gloomy a prediction. Dubai will undoubtedly weather the storm. It has many assets in many parts of the world, some of which can be swiftly monetized.

Its real advantage, however, lie in its location — as an international trading and financial hub between East and West — and in the quality of the people who have chosen to live and work there. These assets are bound to see it through.

Dubai has traditionally had close trading ties with Iran, a short distance away across the Gulf. Entrepot trade has been worth billions of dollars a year. But American pressure on international banks to deny credit to Iran has hampered this trade, and has no doubt been a factor, if a minor one, in the triggering the present financial crisis. A resolution of the West’s quarrel with Iran could be to Dubai’s great advantage.

The key to Dubai’s future lies undoubtedly in its relationship with its neighbor Abu Dhabi, run by the Nahayans, cousins of Dubai’s Maktoums. While Dubai has no oil, Abu Dhabi sits on one tenth of the world’s oil deposits and has built up a massive sovereign wealth fund estimated at $900 billion. Abu Dhabi is the immensely rich powerhouse of the seven-member United Arab Emirates.

Will Abu Dhabi abandon Dubai in its hour of need? The idea is inconceivable. This does not mean that Abu Dhabi will give Dubai a blank check. Although it has no legal liability to come to Dubai’s aid, there is every reason to believe that it must eventually do so. The two emirates are bound together by a thousand ties of kinship and shared economic, financial and political interests. If Dubai were to go bankrupt, Abu Dhabi itself would not escape the backlash.

The real question, therefore, is the price Abu Dhabi will demand to bail out its imprudent neighbor. The price is likely to be political as well as economic — that is to say Dubai may lose some of its independence as well as having to part with an equity stake in some of its major assets.

There is always a good side to crises such as these. They force decision-makers to pause and take breath, and to reflect on the sort of societies they wish to build.

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DUBAI METRO

Fast facts:

“In full operation, Dubai Metro is projected to carry approximately 1.2 million passengers on an average day, and 355 million passengers per year”

“Trains will be WiFi enabled”

“The 32.5 mile Red Line [which will open in September] will have 29 stations, four of which will be underground”

“Rolling stock is being supplied by Kinki Sharyo under a $456.2m contract for 385 cars”

“All stations will have platform doors to increase safety and allow a more comfortable, climate controlled environment”

“The driverless, fully automated trains are fully air-conditioned”

“The trains will offer standard ‘Silver’ class, a women and children only section plus a first class ‘Gold’ section for VIPs”

The “Gold” car will be located at front of each train and will be just for men (specifically, non-poor men). The “Silver” cars for the ladies and the rugrats and the downtrodden will follow behind.

Gold cars will feature wide leather seats, an explansive view through the train’s front window, and an “exclusive lighting design.”